Just 60 days prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
