Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
