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Although 2025 was already shaping up to be the most challenging period in modern history for the post-1945 rules-based world order, the past week has been its most destructive week yet. Israel further ignored obligations for international conventions after deploying 10 fighter jets toward the Gulf state, bombing a Hamas delegation engaged in peace negotiations in Doha. The final significant platform aimed at dialogue appears to have vanished completely.

At least 19 Russian drones breached Poland’s airspace. For the first time, allied military aircraft were deployed against enemy targets inside a Nato country. Whether the incursion resulted from an error or intentional testing by Moscow, according to analysts in the West, it represented “the closest we have been to open conflict after WWII,” the Polish leader, the head of government, said.

And then, a prominent conservative voice, an outspoken right-wing figure and close Donald Trump ally, was shot dead during a speech to university attendees and political followers at a Utah university. Without evidence of the shooter’s identity or motives, Trump immediately blamed left-wing extremists,” accusing them for using language “directly responsible to acts of terror that we’re seeing in our country today.”

When questioned about the divided nation might reconcile after Kirk’s assassination, Trump said he was indifferent”. His explanation proved alarming: Right-wing extremists act aggressively since they oppose criminal activity … The radicals on the left pose the real threat – being vicious and horrible and politically savvy.” In this manner polarisation hardens into group mentality. This is how cycles of hostility accelerates toward irreversible conflict.

Actually, more than three-quarters of deaths linked to extremism across America over the last 10 years have come from individuals on the far right, with the radical left responsible for just a small number of these incidents. Trump condemned ideologically motivated attacks broadly a day later – yet omitted mention of the recent spate of attacks targeting liberal figures, which involved multiple murders. From his perspective, the problem is perpetually others, and not the “wonderful Americans” constituting his base.

The political and cultural aftershocks from the assassination are certain to emerge over the next month, yet the gravest risk in a polarised climate is that the shooting becomes the historical parallel of our age. The deliberate burning on 27 February 1933 signaled Germany’s shift from fragile democracy toward autocratic rule. The Nazi leader, newly appointed as head of state, capitalized on the incident to eliminate basic rights under previous governance – free speech, media independence, organizational liberty, assembly.

“Anyone who stands in our way shall be eliminated,” he said, surveying the damaged structure. Thousands of communists were jailed, including all 81 Communist deputies within the legislature. Once opposition was suppressed, the ruling party swiftly consolidated power.

In today’s US, the tragic killing has captivated the nation, galvanising the Maga movement and Trump’s supporters, and he knows it. The white supremacist, Matt Forney, clamoured for the arrest of every Democratic politician, openly claiming the killing as a pivotal Reichstag fire moment.

The reality is, this incident serves as a potential rescue an increasingly unpopular presidency scarred by significant declines in employment figures, a weakening dollar, and real estate turmoil. The former president grieved as though he were family, but the rhetoric suggested this would be as much about targeting opponents rather than justice. Immediately following the murder, Trump promised to go after “each and every one of those who contributed to this atrocity … even groups providing backing.” He singled out a billionaire philanthropist, the American-Hungarian philanthropist and Democrat donor. “He’s a bad guy,” Trump told a news outlet, he “should be put in jail.”

The reasons for Kirk’s killing are still unknown. Ideological leanings of the suspect, a young individual, appear as muddled similar to another recent perpetrator, the 20 year old who attempted to assassinate the former president in Pennsylvania. Is this truly left-wing extremism targeting the radical right – or is it an obscure online culture from internet forums spilling into reality? Phrases etched on to ammunition shells in Utah read less like an ideological manifesto than a crude bricolage of puerile memes and gaming references.

But it is hard not to fear that the repression of dissenting scholars, legal professionals, media workers, government employees, military officers, and judicial figures across the country may increase. Already, reactions on social media have led to a wave of sackings and US state department officials have warned non-citizens not to praise or joking about the murder, instructing consulates to take “appropriate action” against any foreigners who do.

The former president has often prospered amid turmoil and instability. Where real crises do not exist, he invents scenarios – like nonexistent crime waves in Los Angeles, the capital and Chicago. Manufactured unrest advances his ambitions. Currently, he possesses an ideal opportunity. It is understandable he couldn’t care less about national unity.

The shooting provides the perfect pretext for tightening his grip, silencing dissent, and centralizing authority – enabling future leaders to assume full state control, regardless of charisma, qualifications or mandate. Ultimately, any autocratic system has to be built first; once entrenched, it is simpler to maintain.

Democratic systems and international frameworks are far from perfect, yet they provided stability, progress and prosperity – the very opposite of authoritarianism. To suggest that America, the architect of the postwar order, might rapidly descend into complete dictatorship, its leaders thinking historical extremist mindsets, may seem far-fetched.

However, alternatively, it is not far-fetched at all. Totalitarianism was still within living memory during the upbringing even at the heart of contemporary Western nations were growing up. Across European states, numerous households retain memories of the death, destruction, hatred and poverty resulting from oppressive regimes. To safeguard their near future, they may want to consult our recent past.